In the horse racing Pick Six (or jackpot and scoop6 in UK racing), large syndicates can play many more combinations than most, and are the only ones left standing to take down the cash when a couple of roughies come home in the last two legs. This wipes out the small punter and he is left tossing his pick six ticket into the bin where hundreds of other smaller punters' tickets are lying. Its not that the bigger pick six punters are always cleverer or have better horse racing systems; they often have more money available to play more combinations which means that the odds are more in their favor, mainly. Some of them may be astute handicappers as well which helps especially when it comes to the tough decision of where to go short in a leg. As any punter who plays the pick 6 regularly will tell you, it can be notoriously difficult to win.
Mathematical odds for a pick six:
10X10X10X10X10X10 = 1 000 000 combinations (no bankers or singles)
1X10X10X10X10X10 = 100 000 combinations (one banker or single)
1X1X10X10X10X10 = 10 000 combinations (two bankers or singles)
1X1X1X10X10X10 = 1000 combinations (three bankers or singles)
Multiply the number of combinations by the currency unit (In South Africa R1 or a percentage thereof, in the US $2 minimum bet) and you have an idea of how costly it can be and what odds you are up against on a single ticket. What impact does a series of losses have on your betting bank? Factor that in and you have an idea why it is also dangerous to play the pick 6 without knowing how to construct combinations that reflect the underlying probabilities. Like someone once said ''It's easy to pick a winner but it takes a genius to hold the winning ticket''! My point exactly.
Ideal pick six ticket constructions:
Winning the pick 6 in horse racing can be very difficult. If you also play randomly and without pick six software tools, your task is even more difficult. You have to take a view on what kind of outcome you expect. What happens to the didvidend when all six favourites win? Is this the dividend you are playing for or should you be structuring multiple tickets to take advantage of other factors? What you are after are 2-3 favorites winning, 2-3 back-up runners winning and one-long shot winning one leg. That construction is ideal. Why? Look at the pick six results which paid a decent dividend at your track recently. Check the odds of the winners. Do not be surprised when you find a 2-1favourite,5-1,8-1,20-1,1-1favourite and 3-1. Check the results of other venues. How many winners at odds of 2-1 or less, 8-1 or less, more than 8-1 do you see? You will see the same pattern emerge over and over again.
Using handicapping tools
The power of a tool like my pick 6 software has to be harnessed in order to stand a chance of winning the pick 6 because of what it is able to do in a relatively short amount of time and without error. Remember you have to handicap the races, take out the scratchings, construct your tickets, complete your forms or punch them in. These are all time consuming betting activities. If you then (as often happens when in a hurry) still make a mistake with your construction, it can cost you thousands.
My advice is simple:
- You have to have a betting bank,
- a stakes amount (preferably 1-5% of your betting bank, I advise 1%) and
- a consistent playing strategy that keeps you in the game and powerful pick six software. (The playing strategy and software I can help with (just browse the site and the user guide), the other two are up to you). The software effectively is a reduction engine resulting in 97% fewer combinations than a straight bet.
